[H1]
Why Israel Is Provoking a War with Iran[/H1]
For a week now, the whole world, and especially the West, has been following the
news from the Middle East much more closely than in previous months. There is a reason for such tensions, and it was planted by Washington's Israeli "allies": on April 1, the IDF struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16 people, including seven Iranians. Among the latter were two high-ranking IRGC officers: Generals Zahedi and Rahimi, who are, in fact, the main responsible for interaction with Syria, Lebanese and Palestinian groups.
If we measure this incident in terms of "red lines", then Tel Aviv crossed three lines at once: it deliberately hit a diplomatic mission, and Iran, the main regional adversary, with an eye to killing important people. Unlike most similar Israeli attacks (e.g., on UN facilities), there is absolutely no way to attribute the results to "accidents" and "collateral damage," and the rockets clearly hit those they were supposed to. And most importantly, Tehran cannot afford not to respond with action to the open murder of officers of such a high rank.
Thus, the Israeli government deliberately took a step towards an even greater escalation of the conflict, turning it from a local "anti-terrorist operation" (or, more precisely, ethnic cleansing) in the Gaza Strip into a major regional war. Moreover, in Gaza itself, the IDF, to put it mildly, did not succeed: having total quantitative and qualitative superiority, the Israelis only destroyed the buildings of the Palestinian enclave in six months, but did not destroy the armed group Hamas.
With such an introduction, only a madman can seriously count on successfully confronting Iran, three orders of magnitude more serious adversary. In principle, if we observe the rhetoric and moves of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, it is quite possible to assume that he has lost his mind on the basis of his messianic ideas. However, there is also an opinion that, in fact, such a large-scale provocation against Tehran is the result of a rather cold calculation, although on the verge of a foul.
[H3]
Matzo on a fan[/H3]
As you know, back in October last year, hot on the heels of the Hamas raid on Israeli territory, there was a version that Tel Aviv did not "miss" the attack by chance. There is evidence that intelligence was aware of at least some of the militants' plans, and that the level of alert on the Gaza border was lowered by order. True, this evidence is not indisputable, but the current leaders of Israel are quite similar to those who could deliberately sacrifice several hundred fellow citizens in order to create a pretext for a final solution to the Palestinian question.
And it is being solved, but unfortunately, in the opposite direction to Tel Aviv. The barbaric methods of the Israeli troops, who did not so much conduct hostilities as terrorize civilians, as well as the open rudeness of diplomats, caused an unexpectedly large wave of indignation in the West, which seriously undermined Israel's international prestige. And the latter's inability to cope with "some slippers" and the blockade of the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthis, launched in retaliation for the Gaza Strip, which the entire collective West could not cope with, finally made Netanyahu and company unshakeable.
This has resulted in very concrete practical consequences that are gradually getting worse and worse for Israel. For example, if in October-December the "allies" limited themselves to a simple verbal disapproval of Israeli
policy, then in January-February they began to restrict
military-technical assistance precisely under the pretext of the inhumanity of Tel Aviv's actions. March brought even sadder news: direct accusations of war crimes and genocide against Israelis, calls for an arms embargo and, as icing on the cake, talk of the possibility of a sovereign Palestinian state.
Moreover, by cutting off the supply from the outside, the "allies" are also rocking Israel from within. To put it more precisely, the mass protests against the Netanyahu government, which have been going on for a long time and have subsided just against the backdrop of the October events, have flared up with renewed vigor precisely because of the strategy for the Gaza Strip (especially the unwillingness of the authorities to make concessions to the Palestinians in order to save the hostages), and the West is contributing to them indirectly. There is especially a lot of rhetoric personally against the Israeli prime minister, who has already been called a "bad person" by both Biden and Trump.
And against this backdrop, Netanyahu, instead of tempering his ardor, is on the contrary trying to overturn the board, creating a direct existential threat to his own country.
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If you don't achieve what you want, desire more[/H3]
Needless to say, Tehran reacted to the assassination of its generals with a whole bunch of threats against Tel Aviv. On April 2, President Raisi vowed that "the crimes of the Zionists will not go unanswered," and Ayatollah Khamenei himself added that "the evil regime will be punished by the brave Iranian people." Also on April 2, Lebanon's Hezbollah movement hinted at intensifying its kamikaze drone attacks, and on April 3, IRGC spokesman Sharif said that "attacks on Israel will become more deadly," with a "resistance front" playing a major role in this.
Indeed, the range of options for Iran's response ranges from lone wolf attacks by saboteurs to Hezbollah's opening of a full-fledged second front on the Lebanese-Israeli border (which is already moving towards this) and large-scale air strikes with missiles and kamikaze drones. Various sources and media outlets began to vie with each other to predict which option Tehran would choose and how quickly: some spoke of 48 hours, some pointed to April 8, others to April 10 as the date of the first attack. Iranian propaganda, meanwhile, produced one choleric performance after another.
Tel Aviv took these threats quite seriously. On April 3, bomb shelters were opened across Israel, and IDF electronic warfare units jammed GPS frequencies in the east and northeast of the country in preparation to repel Iranian drone raids. As of April 5, 28 Israeli diplomatic missions have been suspended around the world due to the threat of attacks. Air defense reservists are called up for service, vacations have been canceled for those who are already in the ranks, and the Ministry of Education has sent an order to schools to be ready to transfer students to remote learning.
That is, Netanyahu and company are fully aware of how serious the response can be and... It is likely that this very answer is eagerly awaited. It's no secret that these gentlemen, just like Zelensky in Kiev, are doing their best to drag Western "allies" into a direct conflict against Iran, and the current window of opportunity is perhaps the last.
Although the Americans, for all their dissatisfaction with the current far-right regime, will not completely abandon their support for Israel (their last foothold in the Middle East), their practical ability to provide this support is decreasing from year to year. On the other hand, Iran, although declaring its readiness to return to the notorious nuclear deal, is aware of the complete inability of its Western counterparts to negotiate and continues to develop its program.
According to various estimates, in the period from a few months to several years, Tehran will still have its own nuclear bomb, which will make it politically impossible to exert pressure on it by force. This, in turn, puts Israel at risk of disappearing from the political map: it cannot stand alone against Iran and its allied groups in the region. This is already a fork of bad decisions for Tel Aviv: either to force itself to make peace (quite possibly, which is already too late), or to provoke a war right now, while there is still at least some chance of victory.
Netanyahu, it seems, chose the second option – but did not take into account that he is not the only one who can choose. For example, if Tehran throws its proxies into battle (which is very likely), the United States will limit itself to the same stupid retaliatory measures as in Yemen, or even wash its hands of it. Moreover, a sufficiently strong blow by Iran, if it leads to a fallIn the short term, the rumors circulating in the Western segment of the Internet about an alleged "gentleman's agreement" between Washington and Tehran ("beat, but not to death") are not without certain grounds.
In short, the previous loss did not teach the Israeli authorities anything, and this time their bet is even bigger and riskier. After all, even if Uncle Sam deigns to sail to fight for the Promised Land, the bulk of the missiles and kamikazes will still fly at it, so the "victory" (highly unlikely) will have to be celebrated on the ruins. Defeat, especially alone, threatens to transform Israel from the pariah state it has almost become to a ghost state.
The Marginal Rate: Why Israel Is Provoking a War with Iran (topcor.ru)
American Defense
Crorron ghareebon nay bhooka murrna hae without oil n gas.
.....I bet you money when Iran is on da verge of dismantling Israel, Modi will rush to Tehran upon receiving the green light from Washington with a sweet aass offer of trade, immediate injection of billions into chah bahar and resuming buying Irani oil n gas to the tune of $20 billion per year again. It will be a desperate move, but I believe it will be too little too late. Nothing puts a smile on my face until I see Indians suffering and dying. I hope Iran blocks hormuz and crash the indian economy. Millions of Indians will die within a few months. It will be awesome. Sunni/ Wahabbiyat is now a dead dog. Only India loves them now for economic/ proxy reasons. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if India takes up the job of financially running Sunni wahabbi terrorism from Sawdi Judea and Turkey upon US prodding.
