🇧🇩 Bangladesh's Look East Foreign Policy and ASEAN. (1 Viewer)

[Saif]

Sectoral Dialogue Partner: Asean mission heads here back Dhaka’s call​

Photo: Collected

Asean Dhaka Committee (ADC) has assured Dhaka of backing Bangladesh's bid to become the Sectoral Dialogue Partner of the block.

The assurance came as Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud requested the members of the ADC to support Bangladesh's bid to become the Sectoral Dialogue Partner to the Asean preferably by next Asean Summit to be held in Vientiane in October 2024.

The ADC is an informal platform formed by the heads of missions of eight Asean countries in Dhaka -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines and Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

They held a meeting with Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud at the ministry today and congratulated him on his new role as Bangladesh's top diplomat.

During the meeting, the minister also suggested the heads of missions to encourage their countries' business entities to invest in Bangladesh Economic Zones in many sectors such as pharmaceuticals, leather products.

During the meeting, the foreign minister stressed that the Asean countries should harness long-standing historical, cultural and religious linkages with Bangladesh by forging mutually beneficial economic ties.

While emphasizing Asean's favourable trade gap with Bangladesh, he highlighted the need for enhanced role from the private sectors both at bilateral and multilateral level to reap the benefit of the immense trade and investment potentials.

The minister said Bangladesh becoming a Sectoral Dialogue Partner (SDP) to the Asean will benefit both Asean and Bangladesh through extended trade and investment engagements, enhanced people-to-people contact and exchange of best practices.

He also sought support from the members of the ADC to address the issue of initiating the repatriation process of 1.2 million Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals.​

 

[Saif]

In the article below the writer did not mention that the 'Look East' policy of Bangladesh was the brainchild of Khaleda Zia. Sheikh Hasina has just one policy and that is 'Look India' policy.

The 'look east' policy of Bangladesh

The recent visit of the prime minister of Bangladesh to Japan and China if carefully nurtured opens up huge development opportunities for Bangladesh that can materially affect the long-term welfare of its population.

www.thedailystar.net

The 'look east' policy of Bangladesh​

The recent visit of the prime minister of Bangladesh to Japan and China if carefully nurtured opens up huge development opportunities for Bangladesh that can materially affect the long-term welfare of its population. This requires the government to develop a sound look east economic cooperation policy that contains the following four pillars: (a) trade expansion, (b) expansion of foreign private investment in Bangladesh, (c) regional connectivity and other infrastructure connections; and (d) modernising the infrastructure of Bangladesh through high visibility infrastructure projects.

The focus of the look east policy would largely be on China, Japan and Korea but I believe that Myanmar should be included because of its geographical location. The remainder of this note develops the rationale for this policy.

The global economy has been transforming substantially with the rapid growth in income and exports in China and Korea, especially China, over the past few decades. In 2012 China, Korea and Japan (CKJ) together accounted for 21 percent of total global gross national income (GNI) in nominal dollar terms based on the World Bank's Atlas method.

This compares with 23 percent for USA and 18 percent for the European Union (EU). If the purchasing power parity (PPP) method is used, which is a more accurate measure of internally comparable income definition, then the CKJ share grows to 21 percent while the US and EU shares fall to 19 percent and 14 percent respectively implying that the CKJ group of countries constitute the largest economic area in the world.

Indeed, more recent data (September 2014) shows that China's GNI in PPP term now exceeds that in USA, making China the world's largest economy in PPP terms.

Commensurate with its growing global presence in income terms, trade flows have also been increasing. In 2012, CKJ countries exported some $3,522 billion of goods and services as compared with $2,212 billion by USA and $7,339 billion by the EU.

In terms of imports, the values are $3,820 billion by CKJ, $3,306 billion by USA and $8,458 billion by the EU. While the EU is the clear leader in world trade, accounting for 33.3 percent of global imports, at 15 percent the CKJ area imports exceed that of USA (13 percent) by a handsome margin.

Apart from growing income, the CKJ has two other features that stand out from the perspective of a developing economy like Bangladesh. First, the CKJ countries have traditionally achieved large current account surpluses owing to their strong export orientation.

Over time the foreign reserve levels have swelled. With reserves estimated at $3.9 trillion, China sits at the top of the global list of owners of foreign reserves, followed by Japan at number 2 ($1.3 trillion).

With $368 billion, Korea is placed at number 8. These levels of reserves, especially in China and Japan, are unprecedented and speak volumes about the financial strength of these economies.

Second, all CKJ countries are exceptionally well endowed with technical knowledge, design and engineering capabilities in the area of infrastructure development. These capabilities are comparable to those found in USA and the EU.

Combined with surplus foreign resources, these capabilities make the CKJ countries an attractive source of supply of infrastructure projects to developing economies. The infrastructure marvels achieved are obvious to a visitor to these countries. Japan, arguably, also has superb urban planning skills that can be well appreciated when visiting Tokyo.
There is a lot that Bangladesh can learn from this and get expert advice and technical assistance from Japan to re-engineer the Dhaka city layout and transport network, thereby considerably improving the productivity of Dhaka city while also making it more liveable.

The rationale for Bangladesh policy to look east is clear. Bangladesh is eager to diversify and increase its export markets.

It has already successfully penetrated the US and EU markets for its exports but the vast CKJ market remains virtually unexploited.

Along with rapidly growing income in the CKJ area, especially China, that is growing much faster than either in the EU or the USA, the export market opportunities for Bangladesh are immense.

The resource rich CKJ countries are looking for investment opportunities in developing Asia to diversify their investment portfolio. The RMG experience has firmly established Bangladesh's claim to be an attractive destination of these new investments. Armed with abundant supply of labour, the labour cost advantage is a strong plus that could be gainfully employed to attract these investments.

The geographic advantage of Bangladesh in terms of its location as the gateway between Western Asia and Eastern Asia makes it a potentially attractive hub for the transit of trade and commerce between the CKJ countries in the east to the Southern and central Asian countries in the West.

India alone is a huge market. Additionally, the open access of Bangladesh to sea on the Southern borders makes it a natural choice for sea trade and transport regional hub. The related development of infrastructure—rail, roads, sea ports—can be attractive opportunities for infrastructure investment by the CKJ countries.

This gateway used to be the southwestern part of the ancient Silk Route that linked China to the Middle East and Europe. It is amazing that ancient people recognised the value of geography and trading more than we seem do in the 21st century!

Transit related infrastructure needs apart, the overall infrastructure investment requirements of Bangladesh are immense.

The availability of surplus financing in the CKJ countries along with their globally competent infrastructure building capacities makes them a hugely attractive supply source for infrastructure development in Bangladesh.

Along with the supply of urban land, the infrastructure supply has become a binding constraint to accelerate the growth beyond the 6 percent rate for Bangladesh. The look east policy provides a natural and attractive solution to easing the infrastructure constraint.

The suggested focus of the look east policy is well-grounded into the development needs of Bangladesh.

Implementation is another matter. It will not be automatic or simply based on diplomatic gestures.

The high-level political support and signals from the prime minister are no doubt important but implementation for results will require a sound approach, long-term effort and constant monitoring. The development of the look east policy will require a solid implementation framework. Some of the important policy elements of that framework include the following:

(i) A well-thought out land procurement and land development policy for foreign private investment. In that regard, it is especially important to quickly and satisfactorily resolve the current impasse surrounding the land transfer to the Korean EPZ in Chittagong.

(ii) An export promotion strategy for the CKJ areas based on a careful review of markets, products, cost structure, import flows and domestic capabilities. (iii) Exchange of business delegations to explore potential trade and investment opportunities.

(iv) Adoption of turn-key type procurement policies for infrastructure financing to avoid procurement related corruption problems and delays.

The government may face capacity constraint to develop the details of such a policy. But there is substantial experience and capacity in local research institutions to help the government develop this policy.

There might be some sensitive political issues raised by India and USA in view of the China angle. But by adopting a sensible economic approach these concerns can be neutralised.

After all despite all the noise, India and USA are among China's largest trading partners. So, there is no reason why Bangladesh should not decide its own economic cooperation policies in a way that best serves its economic needs and interests based on a sound engagement strategy and implementation capacity.

Sadiq Ahmed is the vice chairman of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh. ​

 

[Saif]

Look East Policy: Trade prospect of Bangladesh with ASEAN

History proves that trade has been the lifeline of nations. The maxim that “No man is an island” stands to support that interactions with people is the only means of survival of human and that is only possible through trade. People interact around world through trade in goods and services...

businesspostbd.com

Look East Policy: Trade prospect of Bangladesh with ASEAN​

Towfique Hassan
07 Apr 2023 00:00:00 | Update: 08 Apr 2023 16:07:36

History proves that trade has been the lifeline of nations. The maxim that “No man is an island” stands to support that interactions with people is the only means of survival of human and that is only possible through trade. People interact around world through trade in goods and services. International trade has been a driving force for creating jobs, increasing income and bringing millions of people out of extreme poverty. It has been proved that openness of world economy through trade and investment fostered economic growth. Bangladesh is an example of the benefits of openness of the economy. Her economic growth and development has been attributed to the openness of the trade and investment. During the last 30 years Bangladesh moved from import substitution trade policy to export-oriented trade policy as it has been seen that export is the engine of growth and development. The inward trade policy was adopted only to save foreign currency and production for domestic market to replace foreign competition.

In the 70s many of the East Asian countries (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) abandoned the policy of import substitution to accepted the export-oriented trade policy in an intensive scale. The prospect and the benefits gave an incentive to other East Asian nations to form a joint group for development. That gave birth to the Association of South Asian Nations ASEAN. Many of the important cross current buffeting the global trade landscape are prominently playing out across the 10 member nations of ASEAN. On the other hand the US- China strategic competition is being conducted by proxy throughout the region, with each side jockeying for position, eager to demonstrate that they are the most desirable economic and strategic partners.

The US has come late to the party as China long ago displaced the US as the leading trade and investment partner for most of the region. Unease with the China’s heavy weight power and a desire to see the two giants counter balance each other means that the door remains open for the US. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ( IPEF ) is the Biden’s administration’s most important regional gambit, but at this stage it is unclear whether it will be a ground breaking new template that put US back in the game. The role played by ASEAN members and the negotiating strategies they pursue will go a long way towards determining which outcome will finally materialize. Under this perspective we now analyze Bangladesh’s trade possibility with ASEAN.

Bangladesh adopted “Look East Policy” to engage with ASEAN to increase trade and investment relations with them. Geographical proximity with ASEAN extends Bangladesh a greater opportunity of mutual cooperation with ASEAN. The member countries of ASEAN have achieved a higher degree of economic growth in the last three decades. Experts believe that the member state will register even higher economic growth in the coming years. Look East Policy has made imports easier, but the exports from Bangladesh failed to make a dent in the ASEAN markets. In 2020 (data beyond 2020 are not available) imports from ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) amounted to USD 7.00 billion. Bangladesh’s export destination is mainly towards EU and NAFTA countries. However, this trend has some risks due to uncertain problems with exports to these countries. If the existing preferential trade is withdrawn exports from Bangladesh might suffer serious setback. Present too much dependence on EU and US market might lead to act as an anti-diversification policy.

Import from ASEAN has increased sharply over the years. Imports in 1999-00 had been TK 57689 million which increased to TK 2,92,966 million in 2009-10. The growth rates of imports from ASEAN over the decades had been 7.44 per cent, 23.59 per cent,and 5.8 per cent, Average growth of imports has been 18 per cent from ASEAN.

Export grew moderately from TK 3921 million to TK 19626 million between 1999-00 to 2009-10. The percentage of export has not changed significantly. Over the last decade export to ASEAN grew at a rate of 1.89 per cent, 1.64 per cent, 1.45 per cent and 2.25 per cent on an average. The average growth rate of export to ASEAN has been 1.6 per cent.

Among the ASEAN nations Thailand is the key country in Bangladesh’s “Look East Policy”. Trade relation with ASEAN is mainly concentrated with Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. From Bangladesh export data it is revealed that no serious effort have been taken in the past even through there is a vast market for Bangladeshi products.

Digital trade is a potential area where ASEAN is poised to play a pivotal role. Greater digital interoperability and more coherent digital trade rules would help the SMEs that pre-dominate the region become global players capable of reaping global profit. Signing digital deals that accomplishes the goal is therefore an important priority, but that will not be easily achieved. There is wide spread support for “nuts and bolts’ issue which is facilitating acceptance of the electronic signature. The ASEAN is the most open as well as most restrictive digital trade region. The policies ultimately taken by ASEAN members will shape digital issues being negotiated across multiple forums like WTO, IPEF and DEPA (digital economy partnership agreement).

Bangladesh with its booming ICT sector could try to join the ASEAN digital hub for export of ICT expertizes. Trade and economic relevance of ASEAN is unquestionable. Some ASEAN members are playing much bigger role to assert themselves in the global geopolitical arena. For example, Indonesia’s politically fraught G-20 Summit last year in Bali suggests that at least some ASEAN members are poised to assert themselves and play a bigger role. So there arises a question “what does ASEAN think” will be posed more frequently in 2023. In such a prospective background Bangladesh should try to have a dent so that relation with South East Nations could be a new hub for Bangladeshi products.

A trade relation with ASEAN would boost not only trade and investment but also would benefit the North Eastern region of India. If Bangladesh could use Indian ports to increase trade with ASEAN, both nations would benefit. Since we want to reduce the dependency of export from West by creating new markets to East and South East Asian countries, we need to look to East.

ASEAN was set up by five original members namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand and they together represent the official organization that pursued region economic integration in East Asia. Bangladesh has been trying to build a strong trade link with ASEAN. However, that has not be to a satisfactory level. Volume of trade between Bangladesh and ASEAN has grown steadily. The percentage of export to ASEAN has not changed significantly over the period between1999 to 2010. The average percentage of export to ASEAN has been 1.6 per cent while that of import has been 16 per cent. So the amount of import is more than export and the balance of trade is in favour of ASEAN. Therefore, the unfavourable balance of trade is of great concern for Bangladesh. The export/import average is the ratio of total exports to total imports. It indicates that the export/import ratio of Bangladesh to ASEAN is less than the total import ratio of Bangladesh to the whole world. This implies that the import is very high over export. Only an increase in export could bridge the gap.

Bangladesh needs to diversify its exports to ensure better quality to increase exports to ASEAN. The country should try to have concessionary tariff arrangement. The bilateral relation between ASEAN and Bangladesh should be expanded vide provision of quality goods, non-traditional goods, supply of manpower , providing services including tourism, culture, education and medical treatment. Bangladesh needs to develop communication infrastructure, road, railway and deep sea port. Despite the devastating impact of COVID-19 pandemic, Bangladesh is one of the handfuls of countries that saw a growth in their economy and ascended 8 ranks in the World Bank’s Ease of doing business index 2020.

This rank though emphasizes massive room for improvement with regard to the in efficiency of Bangladesh’s bureaucracy. Bangladesh within its recent economic development progress has been an emerging Asian star. During the period 2017-2019 its economy grew at 7.8 per cent and managed 2.4 per cent in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the very few countries worldwide to show growth during this time. Bangladesh has the potential as a Supply Chain in addition to China plus One Concept. Bangladesh can serve as a bridge between ASEAN and SAARC. Finally heavy diplomatic lobbying is needed to have an FTA with ASEAN. If that cannot be achieved, Bangladesh can pursue to be the 11th member of ASEAN.

The writer is former Director General of EPB. ​

 

[Saif]

The dynamics of Bangladesh's "Looks East" Policy

Muhammad Abu Jaber The “Look East” policy of Bangladesh denotes building ties with South and Southeastern Asian countries. This type of policy includes bilateral relations, economic cooperation and strategic defense accord with this region specially with China, Korea, Japan, Thailand and...

internationalaffairsbd.com

The dynamics of Bangladesh’s “Looks East” Policy​

January 22, 2017admin

Muhammad Abu Jaber

The “Look East” policy of Bangladesh denotes building ties with South and Southeastern Asian countries. This type of policy includes bilateral relations, economic cooperation and strategic defense accord with this region specially with China, Korea, Japan, Thailand and Myanmar.

The first “Look East” policy was taken by Malaysian government led by Mahathir Mohamad in 1983. It primarily focused on “Foreign Direct Investment” (FDI) and technical assistance from Japan. A very similar policy was adopted by India in 1992. But after assuming office, Narendra Modi government is likely to alter its previous policy. India Now concentrates on the West. Recent developments drive us to think so.

In Bangladesh, the policy was first initiated by the government of Bangladesh led by Khaleda Zia in 2001. She said, “The doors are open for us in the West, East, North and South, but we are focusing on the East. Because it is good for us.”

Bangladesh is a booming economic country. Its economy is the 44th largest in the world in nominal terms and 32nd largest in “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) terms. Bangladesh is considered as one of the “Next Eleven Emerging Economies”. According to IMF, Bangladesh is the second fastest growing economy in 2016 with 7.1% growth rate.

Basically Bangladesh is a market based and export oriented economy. Approximately 85% of its export goes to the west where 53% goes to EU and 33% to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area).

If we carefully nurture the foreign policy of Bangladesh, Dhaka’s dependency on the west is obvious to us. Specially Indian dominance can be mentioned. There is a huge trade deficit between India and Bangladesh. Now the concern is any disruption in the West may severely hamper Bangladesh’s economy. EU is definitely a big market for Bangladesh but it may no longer sustain prevailing insurgency due to Brexit.

Following this circumstances, Southeastern Asian countries including China, Korea and Japan are the most promising region to build a dynamic relations for Bangladesh.

There is strong ground behind this alteration of the policy. In 2012, China, Korea and Japan (CKJ) together accounted for 21% of the total global Gross National Income (GNI) while U.S.A accounted for 23% and EU accounted for 18%.

In Purchasing Power Parity term (which is accurate), China’s Gross National Income now exceeds that in USA. In spite of huge trade deficit between Bangladesh and China, there are great opportunities for Bangladesh. China seems to have a better intention regarding Bangladesh. Both the government of Bangladesh and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). China agreed to invest $24.45 billion in 34 different projects.

On the other hand, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe described Bangladesh as a great economic potential. Thus Japan has come up with the new concept of the “Bay of Bengal industrial growth belt” or what Abe termed as “Big B”. What is notable is that both China and Japan want to join the Bay of Bengal growth zone despite the tensions between Tokyo and Beijing over the South China Sea. Interestingly Bangladesh does not have to choose an alignment between China and Japan.

All these compel us to think that it is time Bangladesh transformed its concentration from the West to East without further delay. Undoubtedly while bargaining Bangladesh has to uphold its strong position for maximum gaining. Bureaucratic competency needs uplifting. Initially Bangladesh must emphasize on four basic points like investment, trade cooperation, regional connectivity and infrastructure.

Although many argue that the policy is limited in words, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s recent two state-visits to China and Japan and their visits to Bangladesh waved our aspirations. If the policy makers are speculative and sincere good day is about to come.​

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh key part of India’s Act East policy: Jaishankar

Jaishankar said Modi’s visit will be memorable as Bangladesh and India have a 360-degree partnership

www.livemint.com

Bangladesh key part of India’s Act East policy: Jaishankar​

​

Jaishankar said Modi’s visit will be memorable as Bangladesh and India have a 360-degree partnership​

Foreign minister Jaishankar with Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina on Thursday.

NEW DELHI : Union foreign minister S. Jaishankar on Thursday said Bangladesh was not only a key part of India’s “neighbourhood first policy" but also crucial for New Delhi’s “Act East policy", which aims to cement ties between India and South-East Asia.

He expressed confidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s planned visit to Dhaka later this month will be “very memorable" as India’s strategic ties with Bangladesh is an all encompassing “360 degree partnership".

Jaishankar reached Dhaka on Thursday on a day-long trip aimed at preparing the ground for Modi’s visit. The PM will participate in the celebrations of 50th anniversary of Bangladesh’s Independence and 50 years of Bangladesh-India diplomatic relations. The two-day visit is expected to take place on 26-27 March.

After holding talks with his Bangladeshi counterpart A.K. Abdul Momen, Jaishankar said in a Twitter post: “Our relationship is so broad and our comfort level so high that there is no domain today that is left untouched. It is a truly a 360 degree partnership."

“Our relations actually transcend even our strategic partnership, and I believe that our bonding is central to the realisation of a dream of a peaceful, prosperous and progressive South Asia," he added.

Talking to reporters later, Jaishankar said the two ministers were “working to prepare for the planned visit of our Prime Minister". “It will surely be a very memorable visit: if I recall right it would be his first visit outside India since the coronavirus pandemic and his second as Prime Minister to Bangladesh. Many of you would remember his (Modi’s) last visit (here), that was something very transformational in our relationship," he said – referring to the 2015 visit when India and Bangladesh concluded a long-pending land boundary pact, elevating ties to a new level.

“India will always be there by your side, as a reliable friend," he added. “We see Bangladesh as a key neighbour and a valued partner not only in South Asia but also in the broader Indo-Pacific region. Every outcome and achievement in our relationship resonates through this region. It is no secret that we cite it to others as an example for emulation," he said.​

 

[Saif]

The Daily Star Web Edition Vol. 5 Num 447

Dhaka sees Beijing as core of 'Look East' policy
Khaleda tells Chinese weekly
Bss, Dhaka

Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has said Bangladesh and China are now witnessing a golden era in their relations and there has been unprecedented progress in the bilateral ties at every level.

In an interview with the leading Chinese weekly, Beijing Review, prior to her mid-August visit to China, Khaleda said keeping an excellent relationship with China is at the core of her government's 'Look East' policy, which aims to expand and deepen ties with the neighbours in the east.

"I firmly believe that we can draw upon the dynamics and synergies of our relations for the benefit of our two countries and two peoples," she said in her written interview, which the paper published on August 25.

In the two-page extensive interview which the paper titled 'Bangladesh Looks East', she also said that the UN is the only global body representing the world community.

Khaleda said she was optimistic that her visit to Beijing would provide a wonderful opportunity to exchange views with the Chinese leadership, reinforce the constructive partnership, and further deepen the trust and understanding that mark relations between the two friendly countries.

The prime minister referred to the celebrations of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with China this year, which, she said, had flourished by leaps and bounds over the past three decades.

"The occasion is being celebrated as China-Bangladesh Friendship Year. During the year, we have had some very important visits at the political level---the visit of Premier Wen to Dhaka and my visit to Beijing. The visits have been undertaken to mark the 30th anniversary celebrations," she said.

Khaleda said the depth of relationship is quite evident in the frequent exchange of high-level visits between the two countries.

"Prime Minister Wen visited Bangladesh in April and I am in China within four months of that visit. In fact, this is my third trip to China since I assumed office in October 2001. This is a testimony to the importance that we both attach to our ties," she said.

Sharing her views on Sino-Bangladeshi relations and international affairs with the Beijing Review, the prime minister described China as "not only a very close friend, but also a very important partner in our national development endeavour."

"Since the establishment of diplomatic relations three decades ago, ties between our two countries have grown from strength to strength in all spheres."

She said, "Our relationship is based on the solid foundations of a close partnership, which found expression in the comprehensive partnership of cooperation that we entered into during Premier Wen's visit to Bangladesh in April," she said.

She said the two countries share common perceptions on peace, stability and development of their peoples and countries. Both have commonality of interests on regional and global issues and work very closely in the UN and other international and regional forums.

Bangladesh, she said, believes in the One-China Policy and supports the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the mainland.

 

[Saif]

An old article about Khaleda Zia's Look East policy.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Bangladesh looks east

Bangladesh looks east

Khaleda Zia (L) with Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
Khaleda Zia recently visited her Thai counterpart
By Waliur Rahman
BBC reporter in Dhaka


Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has said her government is now looking to the East as part of a new foreign policy focus. The doors are open to us for west, east, north and south.

She says this is for the benefit of the country and its people, but she insists her government will maintain good relations with its neighbours and Western countries.

Analysts say the announcement is the clearest signal yet that her year-old administration wants to reduce Dhaka's dependence on traditional allies like India.

The announcement came days after Mrs Zia's back-to-back visits to Thailand and China, and a visit to Dhaka by the Burmese ruler, General Than Shwe, last month.

Government leaders have been talking for some time about a "Look East" foreign policy in pursuit of trade with the countries of eastern and south-eastern Asia.

'Indian dominance'

Dhaka also wants Bangladesh to become a dialogue partner of the Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) regional forum.

Khaleda Zia told a gathering in Dhaka that her government was marching towards the East because "it would bring good for us at this moment".

"The doors are open to us for west, east, north and south," she said on Thursday.

"We will strengthen relations with the countries from which the country and people will derive more benefits."

Mrs Zia insists on a desire to maintain good relations with all countries, but analysts say the "Look East" policy is directed against India's dominance of South Asian regional politics.

Frustration

This became clear when she accused her predecessor, Sheikh Hasina, of pursuing a subservient foreign policy dictated by a particular country.

She did not name the country, but analysts say she was referring to India.

They say Dhaka will try to further improve relations with Western countries because they are its principal markets and aid donors.

The "Look East" policy, says analyst CR Abrar, is a result of Dhaka's frustration over the slow progress in the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (Saarc) compared to the success of other regional bodies.

Continued tension between India and Pakistan has stalled Saarc's activities.

Trade deficit

"Also, a series of accusations from the top Indian leadership that Bangladesh is a safe haven for Islamic extremists has angered the present government," said Mr Abrar, a professor at Dhaka University.

But he says that Dhaka is perhaps more concerned over Delhi's unwillingness to reduce Bangladesh's trade deficit, which has now crossed $1bn.

He said several pleas by the Bangladesh Government in this regard have so far been largely ignored by India.

Even the Indian business community's suggestion that Delhi offer Dhaka some trade concessions have changed nothing, he said.

However, Foreign Minister Morshed Khan appeared to question that assumption.

"We have very good ties with India, despite occasional irritants," he said. "And we look forward to solid ties with all members of the Saarc."

 

[Bilal9]

In the article below the writer did not mention that the 'Look East' policy of Bangladesh was the brainchild of Khaleda Zia. Sheikh Hasina has just one policy and that is 'Look India' policy.

The 'look east' policy of Bangladesh

The recent visit of the prime minister of Bangladesh to Japan and China if carefully nurtured opens up huge development opportunities for Bangladesh that can materially affect the long-term welfare of its population.

www.thedailystar.net

The 'look east' policy of Bangladesh​

The recent visit of the prime minister of Bangladesh to Japan and China if carefully nurtured opens up huge development opportunities for Bangladesh that can materially affect the long-term welfare of its population. This requires the government to develop a sound look east economic cooperation policy that contains the following four pillars: (a) trade expansion, (b) expansion of foreign private investment in Bangladesh, (c) regional connectivity and other infrastructure connections; and (d) modernising the infrastructure of Bangladesh through high visibility infrastructure projects.

The focus of the look east policy would largely be on China, Japan and Korea but I believe that Myanmar should be included because of its geographical location. The remainder of this note develops the rationale for this policy.

The global economy has been transforming substantially with the rapid growth in income and exports in China and Korea, especially China, over the past few decades. In 2012 China, Korea and Japan (CKJ) together accounted for 21 percent of total global gross national income (GNI) in nominal dollar terms based on the World Bank's Atlas method.

This compares with 23 percent for USA and 18 percent for the European Union (EU). If the purchasing power parity (PPP) method is used, which is a more accurate measure of internally comparable income definition, then the CKJ share grows to 21 percent while the US and EU shares fall to 19 percent and 14 percent respectively implying that the CKJ group of countries constitute the largest economic area in the world.

Indeed, more recent data (September 2014) shows that China's GNI in PPP term now exceeds that in USA, making China the world's largest economy in PPP terms.

Commensurate with its growing global presence in income terms, trade flows have also been increasing. In 2012, CKJ countries exported some $3,522 billion of goods and services as compared with $2,212 billion by USA and $7,339 billion by the EU.

In terms of imports, the values are $3,820 billion by CKJ, $3,306 billion by USA and $8,458 billion by the EU. While the EU is the clear leader in world trade, accounting for 33.3 percent of global imports, at 15 percent the CKJ area imports exceed that of USA (13 percent) by a handsome margin.

Apart from growing income, the CKJ has two other features that stand out from the perspective of a developing economy like Bangladesh. First, the CKJ countries have traditionally achieved large current account surpluses owing to their strong export orientation.

Over time the foreign reserve levels have swelled. With reserves estimated at $3.9 trillion, China sits at the top of the global list of owners of foreign reserves, followed by Japan at number 2 ($1.3 trillion).

With $368 billion, Korea is placed at number 8. These levels of reserves, especially in China and Japan, are unprecedented and speak volumes about the financial strength of these economies.

Second, all CKJ countries are exceptionally well endowed with technical knowledge, design and engineering capabilities in the area of infrastructure development. These capabilities are comparable to those found in USA and the EU.

Combined with surplus foreign resources, these capabilities make the CKJ countries an attractive source of supply of infrastructure projects to developing economies. The infrastructure marvels achieved are obvious to a visitor to these countries. Japan, arguably, also has superb urban planning skills that can be well appreciated when visiting Tokyo.
There is a lot that Bangladesh can learn from this and get expert advice and technical assistance from Japan to re-engineer the Dhaka city layout and transport network, thereby considerably improving the productivity of Dhaka city while also making it more liveable.

The rationale for Bangladesh policy to look east is clear. Bangladesh is eager to diversify and increase its export markets.

It has already successfully penetrated the US and EU markets for its exports but the vast CKJ market remains virtually unexploited.

Along with rapidly growing income in the CKJ area, especially China, that is growing much faster than either in the EU or the USA, the export market opportunities for Bangladesh are immense.

The resource rich CKJ countries are looking for investment opportunities in developing Asia to diversify their investment portfolio. The RMG experience has firmly established Bangladesh's claim to be an attractive destination of these new investments. Armed with abundant supply of labour, the labour cost advantage is a strong plus that could be gainfully employed to attract these investments.

The geographic advantage of Bangladesh in terms of its location as the gateway between Western Asia and Eastern Asia makes it a potentially attractive hub for the transit of trade and commerce between the CKJ countries in the east to the Southern and central Asian countries in the West.

India alone is a huge market. Additionally, the open access of Bangladesh to sea on the Southern borders makes it a natural choice for sea trade and transport regional hub. The related development of infrastructure—rail, roads, sea ports—can be attractive opportunities for infrastructure investment by the CKJ countries.

This gateway used to be the southwestern part of the ancient Silk Route that linked China to the Middle East and Europe. It is amazing that ancient people recognised the value of geography and trading more than we seem do in the 21st century!

Transit related infrastructure needs apart, the overall infrastructure investment requirements of Bangladesh are immense.

The availability of surplus financing in the CKJ countries along with their globally competent infrastructure building capacities makes them a hugely attractive supply source for infrastructure development in Bangladesh.

Along with the supply of urban land, the infrastructure supply has become a binding constraint to accelerate the growth beyond the 6 percent rate for Bangladesh. The look east policy provides a natural and attractive solution to easing the infrastructure constraint.

The suggested focus of the look east policy is well-grounded into the development needs of Bangladesh.

Implementation is another matter. It will not be automatic or simply based on diplomatic gestures.

The high-level political support and signals from the prime minister are no doubt important but implementation for results will require a sound approach, long-term effort and constant monitoring. The development of the look east policy will require a solid implementation framework. Some of the important policy elements of that framework include the following:

(i) A well-thought out land procurement and land development policy for foreign private investment. In that regard, it is especially important to quickly and satisfactorily resolve the current impasse surrounding the land transfer to the Korean EPZ in Chittagong.

(ii) An export promotion strategy for the CKJ areas based on a careful review of markets, products, cost structure, import flows and domestic capabilities. (iii) Exchange of business delegations to explore potential trade and investment opportunities.

(iv) Adoption of turn-key type procurement policies for infrastructure financing to avoid procurement related corruption problems and delays.

The government may face capacity constraint to develop the details of such a policy. But there is substantial experience and capacity in local research institutions to help the government develop this policy.

There might be some sensitive political issues raised by India and USA in view of the China angle. But by adopting a sensible economic approach these concerns can be neutralised.

After all despite all the noise, India and USA are among China's largest trading partners. So, there is no reason why Bangladesh should not decide its own economic cooperation policies in a way that best serves its economic needs and interests based on a sound engagement strategy and implementation capacity.

Sadiq Ahmed is the vice chairman of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh. ​

I agree 100% that Hasina's overture toward ASEAN is inept and incomplete.

If we have to do anything, we should become some part of ASEAN, though we are not physically a part of the South East Asia.

Our entire involvement with SAARC during Hasina's rule has been a time-waster of sorts and has helped Modi become the trade hegemon of the region.

We should have spent more time on ASEAN involvement.

 

[Old School]

I agree 100% that Hasina's overture toward ASEAN is inept and incomplete.

If we have to do anything, we should become some part of ASEAN, though we are not physically a part of the South East Asia.

Our entire involvement with SAARC during Hasina's rule has been a time-waster of sorts and has helped Modi become the trade hegemon of the region.

We should have spent more time on ASEAN involvement.

In fact, the ASEAN countries have more "look West" policies than anyone else. Only in the sub-continent can one get away with such a myopic terminology as "look east."

 

[Saif]

I agree 100% that Hasina's overture toward ASEAN is inept and incomplete.

If we have to do anything, we should become some part of ASEAN, though we are not physically a part of the South East Asia.

Our entire involvement with SAARC during Hasina's rule has been a time-waster of sorts and has helped Modi become the trade hegemon of the region.

We should have spent more time on ASEAN involvement.

With 'Look East' policy we could be a part of rising economic bloc ASEAN and the 2nd largest economic market-- China. A developing country like Bangladesh needs money to take the economic growth to next level and ASEAN and China could be our cash cow to achieve such economic growth that we desire.

 

[Bilal9]

In fact, the ASEAN countries have more "look West" policies than anyone else. Only in the sub-continent can one get away with such a myopic terminology as "look east."

What can they do bhai.

From Bangladesh, looking West is looking at India, from where no developmental help is going to come. Plus Bangladesh' relationship is at a pretty low level right now with Modi govt.

In fact most of India itself (North and North-East India) is in equal or rather worse situation than Bangladesh is. They have little industrial infra and China-hate, red tape and baboo-dom means these are not places ASEAN countries will invest anytime soon.

ASEAN Plus Three countries (like China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan) were (and still are) in a far better financial situation to invest in a semi-skilled country like Bangladesh.

Though there has been some higher value addition skilled industries in Bangladesh (like freelancing and backoffice) - most of the country's labor pool is largely semi-skilled, who have wage demands much lower than these ASEAN countries.

Unlike India, Bangladesh is a bottom-up sort of economy. India is a back-office top-down economy which drives the other sectors.

This means only way Bangladesh will develop is by low wage workers adding value in massive numbers.

Some Asian countries have almost same low wages too like Bangladesh, but these (Vietnam, Cambodia. Myanmar) have their own issues.

Vietnam is rapidly moving upward in wages, going into electronics and auto manufacturing higher value addition. Vietnamese wages are going to exceed Chinese wages (or close) soon. Brother @Beijingwalker can maybe confirm. My Thanks in advance.

Cambodia's labor pool is almost gone, they have a limited supply of workers.

Myanmar is a cluster-f. And will remain so for a while.

The only choice is Bangladesh and Pakistan.

 

[Old School]

What can they do bhai.

From Bangladesh, looking West is looking at India, from where no developmental help is going to come. Plus Bangladesh' relationship is at a pretty low level right now with Modi govt.

In fact most of India itself (North and North-East India) is in equal or rather worse situation than Bangladesh is. They have little industrial infra and China-hate, red tape and baboo-dom means these are not places ASEAN countries will invest anytime soon.

ASEAN Plus Three countries (like China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan) were (and still are) in a far better financial situation to invest in a semi-skilled country like Bangladesh.

Though there has been some higher value addition skilled industries in Bangladesh (like freelancing and backoffice) - most of the country's labor pool is largely semi-skilled, who have wage demands much lower than these ASEAN countries.

Some Asian countries have almost same low wages too like Bangladesh, but these (Vietnam, Cambodia. Myanmar) have their own issues.

Vietnam is rapidly moving upward in wages, going into electronics and auto manufacturing higher value addition.

Cambodia's labor pool is almost gone, they have a limited supply of workers.

Myanmar is a cluster*. And will remain so for a while.

The only choice is Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The real culprit is the rotten education system which continues to mass produce monkeys instead of knowledgeable people in a vicious cycle. The few who migrate to the West are owed to the Western education and their country of origins gave them birth only. You know how pathetic is the education system.

 

[Bilal9]

The real culprit is the rotten education system which continues to mass produce monkeys instead of knowledgeable people in a vicious cycle. The few who migrate to the West are owed to the Western education and their country of origins gave them birth only. You know how pathetic is the education system.

I guess we should not point the finger at India all the time, but lot of Bangladeshis are of the opinion that RAW with the help of Hasina's education ministry has ruined Bangladesh education system in the past decade, so that Indians will come in to fill the gap and run things in Bangladesh. There are plenty of Nateeja to support this opinion.

 

[Old School]

I guess we should not point the finger at India all the time, but lot of Bangladeshis are of the opinion that RAW with the help of Hasina's education ministry has ruined Bangladesh education system in the past decade, so that Indians will come in to fill the gap and run things in Bangladesh. There are plenty of Nateeja to support this opinion.

I am talking about those who are the products of the 70s and 80s. They are now the architects of producing monkeys. It all started right after 1971. The Chinese have been writing books for the last five thousand years, and your people often compare their language with the Chinese or Japanese, while all you can write in Bengali is poetry. Can you do scientific research in Bengali without learning English? Most Bengalis think so. Read below how Canada based Bengali professor hit the bull's eye:

 

[Bilal9]

I am talking about those who are the products of the 70s and 80s. They are now the architects of producing monkeys. It all started right after 1971. The Chinese have been writing books for the last five thousand years, and your people often compare their language with the Chinese or Japanese, while all you can write in Bengali is poetry. Can you do scientific research in Bengali without learning English? Most Bengalis think so. Read below how Canada based Bengali professor hit the bull's eye:

View attachment 3709

You speak the God's honest truth brother.

Sheikh Mujib did one misdeed is that he turned the official language to Bengali in Bangladesh.

Some say this was RAW saazish to turn back the clock 50 years in Bangladesh.

Azadi le kar Bharti ka ghulam ban gaya.

Even preschoolers speak Hindi now in Bangladesh.

BTW I love Taj Hashmi - for the same reasons the Modi boot-lickers in Bangladesh hate him.

Too many Modi-shills in Bangladesh.