[🇧🇩] Energy Security of Bangladesh

[Saif]

The days of fossil fuel not over yet

President Aliyev has described the country's rich deposits of natural resources including oil and gas as the "Gift from God". Azerbaijan is rich in both of these fossil fuels. Under his presidency, the country has been roaring ahead with development, driven largely by fossil fuel utilisation. One c

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

The days of fossil fuel not over yet
Syed Mansur Hashim
Published :
Nov 15, 2024 21:21
Updated :
Nov 15, 2024 21:21

President Aliyev has described the country's rich deposits of natural resources including oil and gas as the "Gift from God". Azerbaijan is rich in both of these fossil fuels. Under his presidency, the country has been roaring ahead with development, driven largely by fossil fuel utilisation. One can understand the discontent of climate activists as to why on earth the COP29 summit is being hosted by an unapologetic regime that has no problems utilising fossil fuels.

President Aliyev isn't totally off the mark when he talks about the hypocrisy that exists in the West. On the one hand, the country he leads has been dubbed a 'Petrostate' and on the other many of the developed nations are also engaged in buying Azerbaijan's oil and gas reserves. Indeed, half of the country's exports comprises these two natural fuels. Hence, it hardly comes as a surprise when this leader is perfectly at home taking a jab at this UN summit against Western media that have apparently subjected him to a "campaign of slander and blackmail".

President Aliyev's sentiments are echoed by many other fossil-fuel rich countries in other parts of the world, including places like Guyana. The alternative argument to the mantra of climate summits is that natural resources like oil, gas, coal ought to be developed to drive forward national development plans in under-developed nations. The counter narrative is based on the fact that it is not these countries that have been responsible for the major global pollution. Now that the advanced economies have reached a development decades ahead of the rest of the world, these nations are putting caps on developing countries by attempting to limit the use of fossil fuels.

The pushback was bound to come sooner or later. The Azeri president has taken a jab at more than Western nations, Western media but turned his wrath against NGOs stating that "fake news media of the country which is (the) number one oil and gas producer in the world and produces 30 times more oil than Azerbaijan, call us 'petrostate'." If one takes a look at the European theatre for instance, EU nations have actually increased their utilisation of fossil-fuels as they weaned their economies away from cheap Russian natural gas after the Russo-Ukraine war started. That created a lot of demand and countries like Azerbaijan helped fill the gap with its fossil fuel exports.

While the UN chief agrees that the G20 countries ought to take leadership in the process of stepping away from fossil fuels, exactly the opposite is happening. Hence, there is one set of rules for rich nations, and another set of rules for countries that have no choice but to tap into natural fuels to bring their economies into the 21st century.

With regards to the climate summit being held in Azerbaijan, climate activists do have a point. Azerbaijan is undoubtedly one of the oil capitals of the world. If the central point of the summit is to limit use of fossil fuels, then it could have been hosted elsewhere. If it was the intention of the organisers to showcase that the host country would have a change of heart about fossil fuels, then that goal has backfired spectacularly.

Regardless of the process by which Azerbaijan ended up hosting the summit, the fact of the matter is that it has opened up a can of worms that will have far reaching consequences. As pointed out by CBC News "It is a conflict of interest to allow a major producer of oil and gas to be custodian of climate talks that are designed to reduce emissions in order to achieve a livable future for everyone." Another major development appears to have eluded the summit organizers altogether and that is the re-election of President Trump who has his doubts about claims being made on climate change, and is a big proponent of fossil fuels. Hence, how G20 leadership will recalibrate its position after this development is anyone's guess. It remains to be seen as to what sort of commitments will be made at this summit, how much watering down of agreements there will be and whether participating nations will be able to find a common ground on fossil-fuel exploration.

Regardless of what climate activists state, pragmatic nations will utilise their natural fossil fuels to propel their economies forward because as has been the experience of countries like Bangladesh, an import-dependent fossil fuel energy plan is akin to driving the economy to near bankruptcy. Notwithstanding claims that renewable energy (RE) is becoming cheaper, even advanced economies like Germany have stepped back from RE solutions because it is both too expensive to produce and cannot replace cheap sources of fuel like coal and natural gas.​

 

[Saif]

The renewable energy sector needs a push

Reduce dependence on fossil fuels, transition to clean energy

www.thedailystar.net

The renewable energy sector needs a push
Reduce dependence on fossil fuels, transition to clean energy

VISUAL: STAR

As the world accelerates its shift to renewable energy to cut fossil fuel use, it's disheartening to see the limited growth of Bangladesh's renewable energy sector. Reportedly, despite our significant solar potential, a lack of political will and inadequate policy support have stalled its development. According to the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA), as of 2024, Bangladesh's total solar energy output stands at only 1,084.55 MW, which is very insignificant. Bangladesh also ranks lowest in renewable energy generation relative to total power capacity among South Asian countries, as per a 2023 study. Insufficient investment and flawed policies of the previous Awami League regime further hindered the sector's progress.

In 2012, the Awami League government introduced a policy requiring new buildings to install solar panels to obtain utility connections. However, this initiative fell short as many people opted for low-quality solar installations just to meet the requirement, leaving numerous rooftop systems in Dhaka unused. Experts point to policy limitations like the 70 percent capacity cap on renewable energy converters and an underdeveloped net metering policy that discouraged effective solar panel use. Moreover, high import duties on solar equipment further deterred rooftop installations. Consequently, Bangladesh missed its previous targets to generate five percent of its electricity from renewables by 2015 and 10 percent by 2020.

There were also serious inconsistencies in the previous government's energy policies. For example, while the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (MCPP) set an ambitious goal of 40 percent renewable energy in our total energy production by 2041, the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) 2023 reduced this goal to just 8.8 percent—revealing a lack of alignment in energy planning.

Clearly, Bangladesh lags significantly in solar energy development and has much to learn from other comparable countries. Vietnam, for example, provides an inspiring example, as it produces 9,300 MW of rooftop solar energy out of a total 16,500 MW solar capacity. The country's solar production rivals Bangladesh's entire power generation capacity. Therefore, going ahead, Bangladesh can take cues from the experiences of countries like Vietnam and prioritise the growth of the renewable energy sector.

Our power sector is already in a very challenging state. Consistent gas shortages have left many power plants idle, and the dollar crisis has made importing expensive LNG harder for the government. With few viable alternatives, we must look to renewable sources to meet our future energy needs. We hope the interim government gives urgent attention to this sector, and moves away from the flawed and ineffective energy policies of the past.​

 

[Saif]

Transmission loss keeps rising

Transmission loss increased for the second consecutive year in the past financial year with a forecast suggesting further increase over next several years due to mismatched expansions in power and industrial sectors in Bangladesh...

www.newagebd.net

Transmission loss keeps rising
Emran Hossain 20 November, 2024, 23:53

Representational image. | File photo

Transmission loss increased for the second consecutive year in the past financial year with a forecast suggesting further increase over next several years due to mismatched expansions in power and industrial sectors in Bangladesh.

The transmission loss in the past financial year meant the loss of electricity worth more than Tk 3,200 crore, the cost that was passed on to the consumers.

In the past 14 years, major power plants were built far away from Dhaka, where most of the electricity is consumed, requiring the transmission of electricity over long distances up to 500km.

The industrial activities largely remain concentrated around Dhaka where electricity is transmitted from as far as Adani power plant in India’s Jharkhand or Matarbari power plant in Cox’s Bazar or Payra power plant in Patuakhali or Rampal power plant in Mongla.

‘The transmission loss is unlikely to go down. Rather, it might increase in future,’ said Power Grid Company of Bangladesh executive director Abdul Monayem Chowdhury.

The number of power substations doubled due to the ‘100 per cent electrification’ cursing increase in system loss, he explained, adding that the number of 132kv substations was set to exceed 300 from the existing 200.

‘The distribution loss, however, is decreasing,’ he said.

The annual report of the PGCB, which was partially released on October 15, showed that the transmission loss in 2023-24 increased to 3.13 per cent from 3.07 per cent in 2022-23 and 2.89 per cent in 2021-22.

The World Bank data showed that Bangladesh’s electricity transmission loss in 2014 was 11 per cent, which was equal to Sri Lanka. In Vietnam, the loss was 9 per cent while Japan recorded 4 per cent loss the same year, followed by Korea recording 3 per cent and Singapore 2 per cent.

A WB report released on August 31, 2023 showed that the transmission loss in Vietnam was reduced to 2.29 percent in 2021.

Transmission loss combined with distribution loss comprises power system loss. The global average of power system loss is about 8 per cent.

In India the system loss is about 20 per cent while in Pakistan the loss ranged between 10 per cent and 35 per cent.

Bangladesh’s system loss stood at 10.06 per cent in FY 24, said the Power Cell, as the distribution loss stood at 7.25 per cent, down from 7.65 per cent in FY 23.

Back in 2002, Bangladesh’s distribution loss was 23.92 per cent while the transmission loss was 4.05 per cent.

Bangladesh’s transmission loss was rather low because of its power generation remaining centred around Dhaka until the latest spell of power sector expansion took off in 2009. Areas far away from Dhaka remained largely out of power supply for there was no transmission coverage.

‘Transmission loss represents the amount of electricity lost during the supply of power from its generation points to consumers,’ said Md Shahjahan, who teaches electrical and electronic engineering at Khulna University of Engineering and Technology.

The loss is caused in the form of heat, he explained, as electricity flowed through wire resisting the current.

The greater the length of the transmission line, the more the loss, he said.

In the past year, the PGCB received 92,900 million units of power from generation points and sold 89,996 million units.

Energy experts said that the use of substandard machinery leading to sudden shutdown of power plants could be another reason for the increase in transmission loss.

Some newly built power plants such as the Rampal power plant already raised eyebrows by its frequent unscheduled and forced shutdowns.

Japan recently announced the development of a technology ensuring zero transmission loss. The technology is basically keeping the wire super cold by using liquid nitrogen.

According to Japan, the technological cost outweighs the profit from the reduction of the transmission loss.

The distribution loss, however, is not always mechanical, explained Shahjahan, adding that the loss was very high in many countries because of stealing.

The Consumers Association of Bangladesh has long complained about widespread power theft in the country, often taking place with direct help of power sector employees.

The stealing of power is so rampant that households, the largest power consumer, developed their own ways of stealing power such as by sticking hooks to the live distribution lines to get connected rather than having an electricity meter.

Such arbitrary handling of power led to accidents and the loss of many lives over the decades. Hundreds got maimed.

The overall power system loss remaining 2 per cent above the global average and the rising transmission loss is bad news for Bangladesh’s fragile economy, experts said.

Major power projects create $2b debt obligations every year. The Bangladesh Power Development Board owed Tk 44,338 crore to power producers at the end of FY 24, as the national power company could clear only half of its dues to power generators in the year.

Bangladesh is also lending $4.97 billion from the International Monetary Fund.

Any more system loss is far more costly than ever before, the experts said, adding that the arbitrary power sector expansion by the past Awami League government, mainly based on imported fossil fuels, greatly increased the energy bills.

In the 14 years ending in 2023, per unit energy cost increased by 269 per cent. In the 12 years until 2009, the year the AL government assumed power, energy cost had increased by 42 per cent.

Bangladesh’s current installed capacity is 27,791MW, including 2,660MW imported from India through Kushtia, Cumilla and Chapainawabganj.

The increasing transmission loss raises reliability issues plaguing the power sector for long. Many industries rely on captive power since power cuts are frequent in the national grid. The impacts of an unreliable power supply system on small and medium entrepreneurs are huge.

‘Bangladesh wasted billions over the past 15 years. A far better power system could have been developed had the country invested in renewable energy,’ said Hasan Mehedi, member secretary of the Bangladesh Working Group on Ecology and Development.

The Power Development Board said that the 14 years’ investment in the power sector was $33 billion.​

 

[Saif]

Payra port: Poor navigability jacks up coal import cost

Just six months after Tk 6,500 crore was spent on capital dredging, Payra Port’s Rabnabad channel has lost much of its navigability, pushing up coal transport costs for the power plants in the area.

www.thedailystar.net

Payra port: Poor navigability jacks up coal import cost
Large vessels can’t reach port after dredging stopped

Goods are unloaded to lighter vessels at the outer anchorage of Payra port in Patuakhali as reduced navigability bars ships with a 10.5m draft from reaching the main jetty. Photo was taken recently. Photo: Sohrab Hossain

Just six months after Tk 6,500 crore was spent on capital dredging, Payra Port's Rabnabad channel has lost much of its navigability, pushing up coal transport costs for the power plants in the area.

Mother vessels carrying coal from abroad for two power stations are unable to dock at the port jetty, forcing the plants to bear the extra cost of lightering.

Patuakhali's Kalapara upazila along the Rabnabad river houses the 1,320MW Payra Thermal Power Plant. Boasting ultra-supercritical technology, the plant began its operations in 2020.

The Rural Power Company Limited's plant in the area is nearing completion, while the Ashuganj power plant is under construction. Both the stations will have a capacity to generate 1,320MW each.

The coal for these plants is brought from Indonesia through the Rabnabad channel, officials of the power plants said.

Many other companies rely on this channel and port to import nine other commodities, from limestone to LPG.

The Belgian contractor Jan de Nul completed the capital dredging of the 75km long channel with 100-125m or higher width by April 26. The dredging allowed vessels with a draft of 10.5m to enter the port.

But the triumph was short-lived. With a glaring lack of maintenance dredging, the channel's depth plummeted to dangerous levels — below 6.5m at high tide and 5.9m at low tide, according to officials of the power stations and the Payra Port Authority (PPA).

No mother vessel, that requires a minimum depth of 10m, can reach the jetty now. Port users face skyrocketing costs as coal must be lightered at the outer anchorage.

Shah Abdul Mawla, project manager of the Payra Thermal Power Plant, paints a dismal picture. "We're incurring an additional $10 to $12 per tonne in lightering costs. This additional expense is a burden on power generation."

Without immediate dredging, transportation costs will soar, and user dissatisfaction will grow, the power station officials said.

Zobair Ahmed, supervising engineer of the Payra Thermal Power Plant, highlighted an alarming reality. "The plant meets 10 percent of the nation's electricity demand. Each month, we burn over 300,000 tonnes of coal. Direct jetty access would have cut costs, but the channel's depth is already dwindling. This winter could see it drop below 5m, hiking costs even further."

Salim Bhuiyan, managing director of Rural Power Company Limited, echoed the concerns of the Payra plant officials. He said they alerted the PPA about the depth crisis and the PPA promised to raise the issue in high-level meetings with the shipping ministry and the Power Division.

Abu Saeed, a top official of Radiant Shipping, warned of dire consequences if maintenance dredging did not start soon.

"The Rabnabad channel was silting up even before the dredging was completed. Reduced navigability means higher costs and longer delays. If this persists, we'll have to seek alternatives to using the port. Maintaining navigability is crucial."

Captain SM Sharifur Rahman, harbour master of Payra port, shares disheartening statistics. Post-dredging, only 200 mother vessels with a 10.5m draft could reach the jetty. But as navigability waned gradually, lightering became necessary again.

On May 1, the channel's depth was 9.3m, shrinking to 7.7m by June 1, and a mere 7m by September 11. As of November 20, it stands at a precarious 6m, officials said.

Rear Admiral Abdullah Al Mamun Chowdhury, chairman of PPA, acknowledged the struggle, saying year-round dredging is vital.

After the maintenance dredging contract expired on April 30, emergency dredging was conducted until August 14, but the channel is silting up constantly.

"While there was initial consent for two more years of dredging, circumstances have stalled a decision. We're also procuring hopper dredgers to boost our dredging capacity. The next steps depend on the shipping ministry," Mamun said.

Despite the navigability crisis, Payra Port's activity is on the rise. Formal operations, starting on August 13, 2016, have seen a boost.

Just 10 ships docked at the port in the 2016-17 fiscal year, and the number rose to 1,040 in 2023-24. By October 28 this year, the port managed 3,160 ships, including 484 foreign commercial vessels, according to PPA data.

This boom generated around Tk 1,576 crore in revenue for the government, the data showed.​

 

[Saif]

Energy transition can address global energy inequality

2024 is the warmest year on record, surpassing the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold.

www.thedailystar.net

Energy transition can address global energy inequality

FILE ILLUSTRATION: BIPLOB CHAKROBORTY

It is well-established that the world is deep into the climate crisis, posing multi-dimensional hazards, risks, vulnerabilities, and loss and damage. Multiple studies indicate that climate-related damages have increased by five to seven percent in the last 10 years, resulting in an economic loss amounting to around $270 billion in 2023 alone, while in 2022, the loss and damage costs reached $1.5 trillion. This, unfortunately, is just the beginning. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced the concept of climate system tipping point more than two decades ago, and various studies now confirm that many of those tipping points could be exceeded much sooner than anticipated.

We are currently at 1.2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period, and the Paris Agreement benchmark is 1.5 degrees Celsius. The year 2023 is the warmest year on record, but what has gone less noticed is that the average temperature between February 2023 and January 2024 was 1.52 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period, exceeding the Paris Agreement threshold by 0.02 degrees Celsius, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Whether this shift is temporary or lasting, it is clear that our mitigation strategies and actions have proven inadequate. Bangladesh alone faced five major climatic shocks only in 2024, with a month yet to go.

Since 1750, humankind has doubled atmospheric carbon, adding 210 parts per million (ppm) of CO2. In just the last 22 years, an additional one quarter of that doubled carbon has been added, leaving us with 422 ppm of carbon in the atmosphere today. Development and energy consumption are strongly correlated, and developed countries grew rich by emitting 92 percent of excess carbon by burning fossil fuels. On a national scale, the US alone, through its 22 mega fossil fuel projects, emits a fifth of the global carbon emission.

On an individual level, the richest 10 percent of people globally emit as much as 50 percent of carbon, while the wealthiest one percent emits double the carbon that the poorest 50 percent of the world's population emits combined. Moreover, the emissions of a single billionaire (three million tonnes) are a million times higher than the emissions of an individual (2.76 tonnes) in the bottom 90 percent of humanity. In stark contrast, the entire African continent emits less than four percent, and developing countries like Bangladesh emit less than 0.5 percent.

As the Global North and the wealthiest continue these egregious practices, global leaders like the COP28 president dismiss the science behind the 1.5-degree-Celsius threshold with calls for a fossil fuel phaseout. The world is edging closer to what UN Secretary-General António Guterres has termed "global boiling." Yet, emissions continue to rise, and an additional 16 percent increase by 2030 will push us to 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, we must halve the emission by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050, which eventually might prevent us from irreversible climate emergency. Ironically, despite having already surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius and reached multiple tipping points, 82 percent of the world's energy still comes from fossil fuels, while only 6.5 percent comes from renewable sources.

There is, however, immense potential for renewables as the Earth receives about 1.52 million TWh of energy annually only from solar, which is 8,700 times more than the annual global energy demands (170,000 TWh). Additionally, there are other renewable sources feasible enough based on the geographic locations.

Energy transition is considered one of the most plausible solutions to save humanity from the brunt of climate change. If we consider the fair share of carbon, the Global North has already exceeded its limit. And yet, if they continue using fossil fuels while prescribing transitions for developing nations, it becomes an unjust, colonial approach. More importantly, we must assess the entire life cycle of the energy transition and ensure it does not place an additional burden on developing nations in terms of finance, environmental degradation through resource extraction, loss of natural resource rights for marginalised communities, job loss, etc.

The ideal recommendation is Just Energy Transition (JET). Least developed countries (LDCs) can phase out coal, then developing nations should immediately phase out fossil fuels. The Global North and wealthy nations should finance the energy transition for LDCs, and developing countries should transfer renewable energy technologies to them. Moreover, the JET must be rooted in four pillars of justice: a) historical injustices, rights, and concerns of marginalised and impacted communities must be recognised; b) affected people, associations, and civil society voices must be reflected in policies and all energy transition processes; c) responsibilities and benefits of the transition must be equitably distributed; and d) affected people must be fairly compensated for energy transition-related harm and loss and damage as part of the remedy.

The world is a shared space, and as we tackle the common climate crisis, we must do so with equity at the forefront, not vested interests. This is the way to introduce JET—the key to an equal and sustainable future.

Dr Mohammad Emran Hasan is head of climate justice and natural resources rights at Oxfam in Bangladesh.​