Forces Goal 2030 and beyond
by Mohammad Abdur Razzak 09 October, 2024, 00:00
FORCES Goal 2030 is a military modernisation programme adopted in 2009 for the Bangladesh army, navy and air force. The programme had a revision in 2017. It will enter its last quarter in 2026. Principal purposes of this programme was to set out development priorities, ensuring consistency in development undertakings, yield the best value for investment in defence and promote indigenous manufacturing. Areas of Forces Goal 2030 were reformation of the forces to have optimum operational sustenance through the interface of horizontal and vertical expansion, defence research, indigenous manufacturing and the acquisition of modern military weapons.
A well designed and a well set out plan together with financial strength were key to this development programme. Financial allocation to support the programme included all current and capital expenditures on the defence ministry and its 26 embodied organisations including the armed forces and departments and agencies engaged in non-combat roles, the operation and maintenance of current inventories, procurement, retirement pensions of personnel, etc. Since the adoption of the programme in 2009, allocation for defence had incremental trend, providing an equilibrium between the plan and actions.
In defence budgeting, inflation is a critical constituent in determining the actual value of the allocation at year end. ‘Generally defence inflation is higher than ordinary inflation. The rate of inflation in the navies is higher than armies as naval expenditures are more capital intensive. Among the armed forces, air force has the worst rate of inflation. But due to air force’s low unit cost compared to navy, politically it is less damaging.’ Besides, geopolitical influence on the market players can exert different degrees of impact, triggering uncontrollable demand pull and cost push inflation. These are built-in intricacies in defence financial systems and market character. Estimating the financial situation 20 years ahead of the time and the possible risks in a defence supply chain demand an extreme analytical ability to see the future where nothing is assured. Inability to foresee the future without exercising such complex mathematics may produce judgmental errors, leading to complaints of insufficient fund allocation.
The army’s modernisation programme included organisational expansion and transformation of military units. As part of the expansion programme, the army has established three infantry divisions and two are in the making, keeping in mind to establish three independent corp command namely central, eastern and western commands. To increase special operation capabilities, new para commando battalion has been raised. The army aviation group’s bases at Lalmonirhat and in Chittagong have extended operational reach.
Going with the transformation of units, the army is converting part of infantry battalions into para infantry battalions and mechanised infantry battalions. To obtain optimum operational flexibility, the army has the focus on introducing diverse advanced equipment from night-vision goggles to main battle tanks, anti-tank guided missile systems, artillery systems, guided multiple rocket launcher systems and so forth from a range of countries. A review of acquisitions reveals that the army’s modernisation is heavily import-dependent and activities linking transformation and indigenisation are missing.
The navy’s principal goal in 2030 was to transform the navy into a three-dimensional force. In this context, the navy has achieved the goal. Since 2009, ‘a total of 31 warships, including 4 frigates, 6 corvettes, 4 large patrol crafts, 5 patrol crafts and 2 training ships were added to the fleet.’ The additions also included special warfare diving and salvage command, naval aviation command, submarine command, naval doctrine command, etc.
Given these portfolios, the naval programme seems to be moving on track with great endeavour to come out of the legacy of second-hand, off-the-shelf acquisitions and a fleet dominated by patrol craft. But out of 31 ships, 21 or so are offshore patrol craft/large patrol craft and coastal patrol craft, training ships, etc. A correlational incompatibility between projection, financial analysis and supply chain may be inescapably tying the navy to the old legacy and delaying the building of a fleet around higher combat capable ships. In its magnificent initiative, indigenous manufacturing is found loosely flagged. By the time the navy reaches the target year 2030, its principal combatants will cross the benchmark of combat effective economic service life generally accepted in the naval domain.
Five ships in the frigate flotilla will be 31 years old and two Hamilton Class cutter turned patrol frigates will be 66 years in 2030. All four missile corvettes will be aged between 15 and 20 years. UK-origin four offshore patrol vessels will be 52 to 54 years old. Over all, the fleet could suffer from ageing syndrome after 2030.
The navy acquired two submarines (Type 035G Ming Class) in 2016 from China. These submarines had been in service with the People’s Liberation Army Navy from 1990 to 2016. Before joining the Bangladesh navy, the boats went through upgrade extending the life to 2030. The upgrade included the installation of new sensors, modern computers and communication systems. So, the navy will have to decide before 2030 whether to opt for another life extension or replace them with off-the-shelf purchase or go for a new acquisition. A cost-benefit analysis of available choices should suggest the best possible option.
The Bangladesh air force’s Goal 2030 is designed to make the force a technologically advanced, well-trained and well-equipped force that can deter any threat to Bangladesh airspace. To efficiently perform duties and responsibilities, the air force has been divided into southern and northern command. New airbases in Cox’s Bazar and Dhaka have been commissioned and two are under construction to widen the force’s operational reach.
The air force has since 2009 acquired five refurbished C-130J, 21 MI171Sh from Russia, four AgustaWestland AW 139 helicopters from Italy, K-8 trainer and 16 Yak-130 fighter trainers from Russia. It is interesting to observe that the air force had its last acquisition of fighter aircraft in 2013, Chengdu F-7BGI from China. Since then, no new acquisition of fighter aircraft has been reported. Earlier purchases were eight MiG 29 in 2000. The air force seems to be precariously moving forward with its goal in 2030.
The hostile intelligence services instigated the politicisation of MiG 29 purchases immediately after its induction in 2000-2001 and now sanction against Russia may have complicated MiG 29s operational readiness and constrained maintenance of other Russian-built aircraft. Making aircraft is a very high-tech adventure. There has been no noticeable activities on indigenous manufacturing except the force’s projection of domestically built first-ever trainer aircraft BBT-1 and BBT-2. These were the force’s encouraging undertakings although they are reported to have had troubled test flight, there is scepticism about their flight worthiness though. Perfection comes from mistakes.
The Forces Goal 2030 has been the first of its kind to advance the future developments in three forces. Optimistically, the initiative should have ensured consistent progress aligned with the national military strategy and objective, economy in defence investment and developed greater understanding among the three forces. The Forces Goals 2030 supposedly has created invaluable learning curb on military planners. But, becoming a maker of warship or tank and artillery or fighter aircraft will remain ever challenging because of meagre heavy industrial engineering and technology capacity nationally. A national collective strategy should show the way to become a ‘maker’. Last but not least, defence offset contracting could be a win-win option to become a ‘maker of military hardware and software.’
Mohammad Abdur Razzak (
safera690@yahoo.com), a retired commodore of Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.
Bangladesh Defense
