[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[Saif]

Trade deficit dropped by $632m in eight months as exports grow more than imports

Bangladesh’s trade deficit continues to decline in the 2024-25 financial year (FY25) as export growth surpasses import expansion. The deficit fell by 4.41 per cent in the first eight months of FY25. The July-February period of the fiscal saw a year-on-year decrease of $632 million, accordin

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Trade deficit dropped by $632m in eight months as exports grow more than imports
Published :
Apr 06, 2025 23:51
Updated :
Apr 06, 2025 23:51

Bangladesh’s trade deficit continues to decline in the 2024-25 financial year (FY25) as export growth surpasses import expansion.

The deficit fell by 4.41 per cent in the first eight months of FY25.

The July-February period of the fiscal saw a year-on-year decrease of $632 million, according to the latest Bangladesh Bank data released on Sunday.

The central bank said the trade deficit in the FY25 from July to February stood at $13.70 billion from $14.32 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Exports grew by 9.10 per cent in the first eight months of the current fiscal year and amounted to $30 billion, up from $27.54 billion in the same period last year.

On the other hand, imports rose by 4.5 per cent and in the current fiscal stood at $43.73 billion from $41.87 billion in the previous fiscal.

An analysis shows that the trade deficit has narrowed due to the increase in imports along with exports.

According to the balance of payments data, the current account deficit has declined by 68.90 percent in the first eight months.

The current account deficit during the period stood at $1.27 billion, down from $4.7 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Again, in the July-February period of the current fiscal year, the financial account stood at $1.42 billion, up from $654 million in the same period last year.

That means an increase in the surplus of over 116 per cent.

Former World Bank chief economist for Bangladesh Zahid Hussain told bdnews24.com, “The fiscal balance has improved a bit from before. Remittances topped $3 billion in March. It is expected that the balance of payments in March will be better than this month."​

 

[Saif]

Gross foreign currency reserves increase to $25.63b

Foreign currency reserves have crossed the US$25.6 billion mark at the end of March thanks to a record inflow of remittances this month. The country’s gross reserves have risen to $25.63 billion, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) on Sunday. The surge came after a signif

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Gross foreign currency reserves increase to $25.63b
FE Online Desk
Published :
Apr 06, 2025 20:10
Updated :
Apr 06, 2025 20:10

Foreign currency reserves have crossed the US$25.6 billion mark at the end of March thanks to a record inflow of remittances this month.

The country’s gross reserves have risen to $25.63 billion, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) on Sunday.

The surge came after a significant increase in remittance inflows, which reached $3.29 billion in March, the highest for any month in the country’s history, reports BSS.

However, as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF) methodology under the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), Bangladesh’s net reserves currently stand at $20.46 billion.​

 

[Saif]

IMF notes some progresses on BD economic front

Some positive notes in the latest IMF review of Bangladesh's economic situation raise hope in government high-ups for release of a stalled loan tranche together with the next one by June. "We are optimistic," Finance Adviser Dr Sale

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

IMF notes some progresses on BD economic front
Govt expects two loan tranches' release by June
FE Report
Published :
Apr 06, 2025 23:58
Updated :
Apr 06, 2025 23:58

Some positive notes in the latest IMF review of Bangladesh's economic situation raise hope in government high-ups for release of a stalled loan tranche together with the next one by June.

"We are optimistic," Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed told reporters when asked whether he remains hopeful about receiving the fourth installment of the US$4.7-billion credit after he had a meeting with the visiting IMF team members Sunday at the secretariat.

He said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is primarily concerned about Bangladesh's low revenue generation.

"The main focus of today's (Sunday) discussion was on how much revenue can be generated, the size of the upcoming budget, and the expected deficit," he told the reporters.

He said making a law to deal with non-performing loans and related issues also came up for consultation.

Dr Ahmed stressed the need for continuing improving governance in the banking sector.

Asked wherein the IMF's emphasis lies regarding the disbursement of the fourth and fifth tranches of its conditional package loan, the finance adviser said, "The key issues are increasing tax revenue, stabilising the foreign-exchange rate, and reducing the budget deficit."

To another question, he said both the exchange rate and foreign-exchange reserves were discussed under the review of the country's macroeconomic health.

The adviser quoted the IMF team as saying that they would return to Washington, review the situation, and then give their opinion.

"We are scheduled to meet again on April 19, and a review meeting is expected around May-June," Dr Ahmed told the reporters.

He said the final decision regarding the loan would be made after that review. "They will provide recommendations based on their assessment."

In response to a question about IMF views on the country's economic situation under the current interim government, Dr Ahmed said Bangladesh's economy is currently stable and heading in the right direction.

Asked whether the IMF was demanding sacrifices or offering flexibility, he said, "We are doing what is necessary for us. We have already shown our good intentions. Now, it's their turn to demonstrate goodwill."

The custodian of exchequer feels reforms are essential regardless of IMF support.

"We must take action-not because the IMF says so-but because it's vital for our economy. We need to reform the banking sector, address bad loans, and boost revenue generation. These are fundamental things we have to do anyway."

On the revenue sector, Dr Ahmed said there are revenue leakages that need to be addressed. "The tax-to-GDP ratio must improve. The tax net has to be expanded. Many people file returns declaring zero income, despite having earnings. This practice must be curtailed."

Quoting the visiting team he said Nepal and Sri Lanka perform better than Bangladesh does in terms of tax-to-GDP ratios.

To a query on introduction of a single VAT rate, the finance adviser said, "We will try to move toward a single rate, but it cannot be implemented right this moment."

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund team, in another meeting on the day with the central bank of Bangladesh, noted that the existing managed floating exchange rate still remained a concern to the IMF and suggested that the regulator go for market-driven exchange system, meeting sources said.

Seeking anonymity, a Bangladesh Bank (BB) official said the IMF representatives in the meeting hailed various macroeconomic progresses in terms of boosting NIR or net international reserves and modernisation of monetary-policy framework.

The central banker, who was present at the parleys, said the exchange rate is still managed floating one which needs to be flexible and market-centric--one of the major lending conditions set by the global lender. The BB official said the IMF representatives observed that the economic growth started rebounding and the inflationary pressure easing. Under such circumstances, they said, the banking regulator can consider further flexibility in exchange rate and cutting down the policy rate (now 10 per cent).

In response, the sources said, BB Governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur said the inflationary burden keeps dropping because of various prudent policy interventions and the exchange rate remains stable for the last few months.

"Once the inflation comes down to our projected level in the coming months, we would probably consider more exchange-rate flexibility and adjustment of the policy rate," the governor was quoted as saying.

Simultaneously, the IMF team members enquired about the current state of the liquidity crisis-hit commercial banks and their revival strategy.

Earlier, the IMF had deferred the release of the fourth tranche of the loan until June instead of March as Bangladesh could not meet some preconditions.

As per the latest developments, the IMF might release both the fourth and fifth together in June, which could amount to more than $1.0 billion, upon fulfilling conditions.​

 

[Saif]

NBR's reluctance to comply with IMF

The National Board of Revenue's (NBR's) flat refusal to go by the recipe the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advanced for the Bangladesh tax authority to pursue a revised target for collection of an additional amount of revenue of Tk570 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26 is evidently a departure

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

NBR's reluctance to comply with IMF
FE
Published :
Apr 09, 2025 22:51
Updated :
Apr 09, 2025 22:51

The National Board of Revenue's (NBR's) flat refusal to go by the recipe the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advanced for the Bangladesh tax authority to pursue a revised target for collection of an additional amount of revenue of Tk570 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26 is evidently a departure from its traditional soft stance. Although the NBR hopes that the intent of non-compliance expressed in a meeting between it and a visiting IMF team would not stand in the way of the latter's release of fourth and fifth tranches of $4.7-billion loan package, there is no certainty of this happening. The release of the fourth tranche has been delayed because of non-fulfilment of certain conditions. How the matter would shape is likely to depend on the outcome of the negotiations in second round of meeting between them held yesterday.

The NBR reposes its hope on policy changes and implementation of the existing laws for improvement in its performance but in the first meeting with IMF, it could not brief the latter of the transformative programmes for tax collection. Now the important point here is if this can be convincingly presented for the IMF consideration, will it be enough for the multilateral organisation to relax pressure on the NBR to raise the tax collection to its prescribed level? The policy framework has so long remained quaint and ineffective leaving much to be desired. One of the most important aspects is the tax-GDP ratio which is one of the lowest in the world and even in the South Asian region. In 2024, this ratio was a meagre 7.4 per cent and to everyone's concern, it has been declining over the recent years. Not only the IMF but the well-meaning citizens of this country has long been urging for expanding the tax net and raising the tax-GDP ratio.

Sure enough, the NBR cannot defend its performance. No matter under which regimes ---autocrat or pro-people---the tax authority runs the revenue operatives, at the end of the day the state's incomes are indicative of its economic health and source of the country's development finance and overall progress. The IMF's insistence that the NBR raise the tax-GDP ratio from the current 7.4 to 7.9 per cent is not at all misplaced. In the next fiscal year, this ratio should be pushed to 9.0 per cent, according to the IMF. Does it prove to be a herculean job for the NBR? If the unearned money accumulated by the likes of ACC's Motiur Rahman, former IGP Benazir Ahmed and other corrupt elements ---both in civil, judicial and military services---not excluding the NBR, are taken into account, it exposes the huge revenue those staggering figures would generate had the money been in regular circulation.

Now that the misappropriation of that outrageous scale cannot be expected, closer monitoring of business transaction, government procurement, various public expenditures etc., should help identify tax dodgers and undervalued income sources, undue tax exemptions and other such irregularities and malpractices to expand the tax bases of both individual and corporate taxpayers. When digitisation has made information available, even the cash receipts and cashless transactions can be tracked down with the help of electronic weighing scale, barcode scanner and label scale etc. A concerted campaign for everyone to keep the record straight can certainly improve the regime of revenue income.​

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh must diversify exportable products, markets; reform tariff structure: Hoe Yun Jeong

Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong on Wednesday said that Bangladesh must diversify its products and markets in the medium- and long-term perspective to brave the impacts of the US reciprocal tariff. “There are possible ways to mitigate the potential d

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Bangladesh must diversify exportable products, markets; reform tariff structure: Hoe Yun Jeong
Published :
Apr 09, 2025 19:08
Updated :
Apr 09, 2025 19:08

Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong on Wednesday said that Bangladesh must diversify its products and markets in the medium- and long-term perspective to brave the impacts of the US reciprocal tariff.

“There are possible ways to mitigate the potential downfall. Yes, Bangladesh needs to consider proactively engaging and negotiating with the US while this has already begun,” he said.

The ADB Country Director was responding to queries of reporters during the launching of the Bangladesh chapter of the ADB’s latest report, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), April, 2025 held at its Bangladesh Resident Mission office in the capital’s Agargaon area, reports BSS.

The United States has already announced a 37 percent tariff on imports from Bangladesh as part of President Donald Trump’s sweeping new “Reciprocal Tariffs” policy.

According to a chart published by the White House, the US government claims Bangladesh effectively imposes a 74 percent tariff on American goods. In response, a 37 percent “discounted reciprocal tariff” will now be levied on Bangladeshi products entering the US market.

In response to such move, Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus has already sent a letter to US President Donald Trump requesting him to postpone the application of a 37 percent tariff on Bangladeshi products in the US market.

In the letter, Prof Yunus requested US President Donald J Trump to postpone the application of US reciprocal tariff measures on Bangladesh for three months to allow the interim government to smoothly implement its initiative to substantially increase US exports to Bangladesh.

Besides, Commerce Adviser Sk. Bashir Uddin also sent a letter to USTR stating that the government would facilitate the export of 100 more products to Bangladesh at zero tariff to reduce the trade deficit with the United States.

The ADB Country Director said that negotiating with the US is important and also a short-term measure, but more important is that Bangladesh must diversify its markets and products for exports.

Going forward, he said Bangladesh can also take the opportunity to rationalize its own import tariff structure and reform its non-tariff barriers considering its tariff regime.

He said, “These types of tariff reforms are applied not only to the US but also to other countries.”

The ADB Country Director went on saying, “So, these are the broad measures that the government of Bangladesh needs to take into account as potential mitigation for US tariff,” he added.

Jeong also noted that it is too early to tell about the exact scale of impacts on the Bangladesh economy by the US tariff.

“We’ll continue to conduct analytical work on the impact and there will be further provided in July ADO update,” he added.

Acknowledging that Bangladesh is facing multiple economic challenges, the ADB Country Director told another questioner that the most urgent challenge might be the persistently high inflation, which erodes purchasing power and discourages investment.

“In our view, tackling high inflation rate will be a tough policy agenda going forward,” Jeong said, adding that the country also needs to address supply constraints as high inflation is also related to supply side disruptions.

“To address such issues, the government needs to improve supply chain, reduce logistics cost and invest in energy resources,” he added.​